21. Milwaukee Brewers - Chad Lannan: The quickest way to describe Lannan would be "platoon SS", which sounds like a poor value in the 1st round. Lannan, however, has the potential to be an extremely valuable platoon SS. Luckily, his poor split is vL, which is much less damaging to a player's value than a poor vR. Excellent contact, great vR, and really good batting eye will make him a force at the plate against RHP's (which should account for 400+ great AB's a year). His defense isn't spectacular but will more than get the job done at SS. Lannan will provide the Brewers with a great option at SS vs. RHP's for a long time. If only the real life Brewers could find one too. Grade: B+
22. Indianapolis Lancers - Ross Prince: I think Prince is a pretty solid value pick for bottom half of the 1st round. I see him as having pretty good splits and control, with two solid pitches and three mediocre-to-crappy ones. Not a franchise-changer, but if he reaches the projections I currently see (no given, since they could drop once he signs) he will be a solid #3 SP...more likely he will be a 4 or 5. Grade: B
23. Little Rock Liddies - Larry Coco: Coco will probably be a decent player but nothing special, which is fine for a pick this late. His D is a little weak for SS, so he'll probably play 3B . Mediocre splits and batting eye will keep him from being a star, but his contact should let him be at least somewhat useful. His blazing speed combined with excellent baserunning skills should allow him to reach scoring position a lot. Probably a mediocre 3B or a very good utility man. Grade: B-
24. Baltimore mets - Carter Farr: I find Farr to be an acceptable but slightly below average pick at this point in the draft. On the surface he looks like a fairly successful SP, with solid splits, decent velocity, and above average control. However, when you note that his lower split is vR and he only has one above-average pitch, he looks a lot like a long reliever or spot starter than a middle-of-the-rotation stalwart. Grade: C+
25. Texas Dragons - Wascar Gil: Seeing a split as low as Gil's vL immediately turns me off to a player. However, I think Gil deserves a second look. That vR isn't great, but will do fine with good supporting ratings. And those beautiful first 4 pitches, great velocity, and pinpoint control give Gil all the supporting ratings needed to overcome those underwhelming splits. I think that his vL rating will hurt him, but I still think Gil will be a solid SP4 or SP5, with maybe a lucky season or 2 where he leads a staff. Grade: B
26. Augusta moose - Malcolm Young: If Young's durability were just 10 points higher, he'd be an absolute steal at pick 26. As it is, though, he's still a solid pick who can help a winning team. When it comes to pitching skill, Young's above-average split set, great velocity and control, and above-average set of pitches will make him dangerous on the mound. But that low durability will keep him stuck as a reliever or a low pitch count SP. Still, given how good Young will be when he is able to pitch, it's a good value for this late in the 1st round. I had him ranked 13th. Grade: B+
27. Hartford Pit Bulls - Alberto Lopez: Lopez is an average or slightly below average 1st round pick, in my opinion. His slightly above average splits, mediocre batting eye, and above average power will not make up for his low contact rating. I see him with a low batting average and unspectacular OBP with about 15-20 HR...but given his defensive prowess in CF, that may be plenty to warrant a starting job. Grade: C
28. New York Juicers - Victor Franco: Franco is an interesting player whose value is difficult to clearly define. On the bright side, he can mash the hell out of the ball when he's playing LHP's, and he'll provide a spark on the basepaths. On the downside, he probably can't hit RHP's enough to justify starting against them with his unspectacular defense. So he'll probably give 200-300 AB of excellent offense a season, meaning he's not a franchise-changer but could still have value. Grade: C+
29. Tacoma Mountain Men - Timo Workman: Low-contact players like Workman are one of the most interesting player types statistically around HBD. They seem to be very inconsistent to me, with All-Star seasons followed by years batting .240. I think Workman has the splits (especially that excellent vR), decent batting eye, and great power to make him an All-Star multiple years in his career. He will also have down years, though, but overall, with a bat like that at 3B, he's going to end up being a positive asset for the Mountain Men for a lot of years. Grade: B+
30. Durham Bulls - Ron Price: Price, to me, is thoroughly ordinary. These are the kinds of players that are picked frequently in this part of the draft. He'll probably make a ML team due to his good vL and great speed, but he will never be anything more than an average starter or a pretty solid platoon man at 2B or LF. These are the guys you can find aplenty in the Rule V draft or free agency. Grade: D+
31. Cheyenne Warriors - Brett Guerrero: Here is the type of dynamic pick teams drafting in the bottom of the first round hope to get to keep their franchise on top. Guerrero has the arm to play C, and while his pitch calling will never be above average, his bat (especially versus LHP's) and great batting eye will allow him to be a solid starter at C for a long period of time. Excellent value pick for the Warriors. Grade: A-
32. Boston Red Sox - Travis Earley: And here we have another example of a difference-maker picked late in the 1st round. While Earley doesn't have the great velocity of many RP's, he does have absolute pinpoint control, a great slider and change-up, and the above-average splits to make him a fixture in the late-inning bullpen of the Red Sox for many seasons to come. Grade: A
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Season 19 Draft Analysis: Picks 11-20
11. Sacramento Screaming Eagles - Dale James: James is going to be a very solid player, but in a draft this deep there were star-quality players still on the board at the time he was picked. He's got solid splits, solid power, solid batting eye, and mediocre contact, which means he'll be an average to slightly-above-average starter in RF for the Screaming Eagles. I had him ranked 8th, but his post-draft projections are worse than pre-draft for me. Grade: C
12. Las Vegas Rounders - Rajai Milledge: Milledge would be an excellent value pick near the bottom of the first round (though, once again, my scouts didn't see him), but he's a little iffy in the top half. He's got the control and velocity to be successful, as well as a killer sinker. He's fine against lefties, but the question is whether he can get righties out...and that's kind of an important thing to be able to do. His lack of a solid secondary pitches is troubling as well, but he should be able to pitch a lot of innings as a #4/#5 SP in the ML's...but this high in the draft, you want more. Grade: C-
13. Tampa Bay Sun - Cookie Beltran: Beltran is a rock solid pick (that my scouts once again missed) at this point in the draft. He's no top-of-the-rotation stud like several of the SP's taken above him, but with 4 good pitches, solid splits, and great control, he will be a good #3 SP for a long time...barring injury. And injury is a big worry for someone with as low of health as Beltran. Grade: B+
14. Oklahoma City Outlaws - Ross Venafro: Venafro is a talented bat that is a good pick for middle of the 1st round. He's got a poor glove in RF, but his arm and bat make up for it. He hits RHP's very well, and with good contact and power and solid speed, Venafro (ranked 9th by me) should see the All-Star game at some point in his career. Grade: A-
15. New York Stink Palmers - Sadie Downs: Downs is another good pick for this part of the draft. Catcher is a position with high durability demands, and Downs should be able to play just about every day. Downs will be about average defensively, but his .300 bat will make him a good option at C for a long time. I had him ranked 17th, but his post-draft projections are significant improvements over what I saw before the draft. Grade: A-
16. St. Louis Arch Angels - Derek Zaun: Zaun is another unspectacular but rock solid pick for the middle of the 1st round. Although listed as a 2B, he will probably end up playing LF, which makes his bat a little less impressive. Only slightly above average hitting RHP's, his good contact, power, and very good batting eye should nonetheless allow him to succeed at the plate. Health could be an issue. I had him ranked 10th. Grade: B
17. Charleston Vampires - Bobby Simontacchi: With the Vampires' 2nd 1st-round pick they got one of the best steals of the draft in Simontacchi. The only knock on him is a poor change-up and low velocity...but his great splits, excellent control, and fastball/slider combo will make him a top-of-the-order SP in the future. He was my 2nd-ranked player, behind only Martin. Grade: A
18. Hartford Pit Bulls - Kip Donnelly: Donnelly is an interesting player whose bat reminds me a lot of my own Rafael Quixote: excellent contact and power, above average vL, and a weak vR and batting eye. Quixote has had a successful career, and Donnelly should have him beat in both splits, meaning he should be a very productive player. He also has great speed, though it's hampered by his baserunning skills. Donnelly's bat at 2B would probably make him a frequent All-Star. More likely, though, he will play LF and be an above-average bat for the Pit Bulls. My scouts missed him. Grade: A-
19. Cheyenne Warriors - Achilles Uribe: Uribe is an interesting choice as a 1st round pick. At first glance, he seems like a poor pick due to his very average bat. However, he's got blazing speed, with baserunning skills to make him a true demon on the bases, and he's also going to be a defensive whiz in CF. I think that his speed will really improve his offensive impact, and the (+) plays he makes in CF will probably earn him his share of Gold Gloves. I've also seen guys with worse bats make the All-Star team. Uribe is an unspectacular pick, but he is a guy who can really help his team win without lighting up the box score with big offensive numbers. I had him ranked 29th, but his post-draft defensive ratings outshine the ones I saw pre-draft. Grade: B-
20. Pittsburgh Penguins - Allan Holland: Holland is a player who can play a contributing role on a good team, but guys like him are often available after the 1st round. He will be Gold-Glove caliber at SS, but he is simply unable to hit RHP's. He can be a solid platoon SS against LHP's, but guys like this are frequently available in lower rounds and in free agency, which makes me think he is not worthy of a 1st round pick. Grade: D-
12. Las Vegas Rounders - Rajai Milledge: Milledge would be an excellent value pick near the bottom of the first round (though, once again, my scouts didn't see him), but he's a little iffy in the top half. He's got the control and velocity to be successful, as well as a killer sinker. He's fine against lefties, but the question is whether he can get righties out...and that's kind of an important thing to be able to do. His lack of a solid secondary pitches is troubling as well, but he should be able to pitch a lot of innings as a #4/#5 SP in the ML's...but this high in the draft, you want more. Grade: C-
13. Tampa Bay Sun - Cookie Beltran: Beltran is a rock solid pick (that my scouts once again missed) at this point in the draft. He's no top-of-the-rotation stud like several of the SP's taken above him, but with 4 good pitches, solid splits, and great control, he will be a good #3 SP for a long time...barring injury. And injury is a big worry for someone with as low of health as Beltran. Grade: B+
14. Oklahoma City Outlaws - Ross Venafro: Venafro is a talented bat that is a good pick for middle of the 1st round. He's got a poor glove in RF, but his arm and bat make up for it. He hits RHP's very well, and with good contact and power and solid speed, Venafro (ranked 9th by me) should see the All-Star game at some point in his career. Grade: A-
15. New York Stink Palmers - Sadie Downs: Downs is another good pick for this part of the draft. Catcher is a position with high durability demands, and Downs should be able to play just about every day. Downs will be about average defensively, but his .300 bat will make him a good option at C for a long time. I had him ranked 17th, but his post-draft projections are significant improvements over what I saw before the draft. Grade: A-
16. St. Louis Arch Angels - Derek Zaun: Zaun is another unspectacular but rock solid pick for the middle of the 1st round. Although listed as a 2B, he will probably end up playing LF, which makes his bat a little less impressive. Only slightly above average hitting RHP's, his good contact, power, and very good batting eye should nonetheless allow him to succeed at the plate. Health could be an issue. I had him ranked 10th. Grade: B
17. Charleston Vampires - Bobby Simontacchi: With the Vampires' 2nd 1st-round pick they got one of the best steals of the draft in Simontacchi. The only knock on him is a poor change-up and low velocity...but his great splits, excellent control, and fastball/slider combo will make him a top-of-the-order SP in the future. He was my 2nd-ranked player, behind only Martin. Grade: A
18. Hartford Pit Bulls - Kip Donnelly: Donnelly is an interesting player whose bat reminds me a lot of my own Rafael Quixote: excellent contact and power, above average vL, and a weak vR and batting eye. Quixote has had a successful career, and Donnelly should have him beat in both splits, meaning he should be a very productive player. He also has great speed, though it's hampered by his baserunning skills. Donnelly's bat at 2B would probably make him a frequent All-Star. More likely, though, he will play LF and be an above-average bat for the Pit Bulls. My scouts missed him. Grade: A-
19. Cheyenne Warriors - Achilles Uribe: Uribe is an interesting choice as a 1st round pick. At first glance, he seems like a poor pick due to his very average bat. However, he's got blazing speed, with baserunning skills to make him a true demon on the bases, and he's also going to be a defensive whiz in CF. I think that his speed will really improve his offensive impact, and the (+) plays he makes in CF will probably earn him his share of Gold Gloves. I've also seen guys with worse bats make the All-Star team. Uribe is an unspectacular pick, but he is a guy who can really help his team win without lighting up the box score with big offensive numbers. I had him ranked 29th, but his post-draft defensive ratings outshine the ones I saw pre-draft. Grade: B-
20. Pittsburgh Penguins - Allan Holland: Holland is a player who can play a contributing role on a good team, but guys like him are often available after the 1st round. He will be Gold-Glove caliber at SS, but he is simply unable to hit RHP's. He can be a solid platoon SS against LHP's, but guys like this are frequently available in lower rounds and in free agency, which makes me think he is not worthy of a 1st round pick. Grade: D-
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Season 19 Draft Analysis: Picks 1-10
Disclaimer: I have $16 million advanced scouting (and $14 million HS and college scouting), so my projections are not perfect. This analysis is done based on the projections I see (advanced scouting for signed players, HS/college scouting for unsigned players).
1. Columbus Small Ballers - Russ Martin: Martin was my top-ranked player. He is the definition of a player to build a franchise around: MVP-quality bat, blazing speed, and very solid defense at the most difficult position, SS. He will be an All-Star SS for the Small Ballers for many seasons to come, and was a great pick by chuckster. Grade: A
2. Mexico City Charros - Danys Perez: Another excellent selection. Perez will hit for more power than Martin, but might not get on base as much. He does boast blazing speed, but his defensive limitations mean he'll probably play 3B rather than SS in the bigs. Still, a bat like his at a position other than C/DH/1B/LF are not easy to come by. I had him ranked 5th, but his projections improved when my advanced scouting guys took a look at him. Grade: A
3. Cleveland Redlegs - Russ Paramore: My scouts saw this as an extraordinarily weak pitching draft, and part of the reason is because they missed Paramore. Wow, what a stud. Has the potential to be even better than Jeff Muratore (even before his injury). Nearly unbeatable splits, as well as great control, velocity, one great pitch and three other good ones...I am very unhappy he's in my division. Grade: A
4. Los Angeles Urban Achievers - Corky Ramsey: Ramsey has yet to sign, but when he does, the Urban Achievers will have a great bat to build around. Ramsey has MVP potential, thanks to his great power, excellent eye, speed on the basepaths, and ability to play pretty much every single day. The only downside is he will be limited to 1B or DH throughout his career. Still, an MVP-quality bat with the 4th pick is very good. I had him ranked 3rd. Grade: A
5. Florida Jack A$$'es - Alberto Alvarez: Ah yes, another stud SP that my scouts missed out on. Alvarez is no Paramore, but then again, nobody is. He still has potential to win a Cy Young (or more) during his career. The lack of a 3rd pitch might hurt him a bit, but his control, splits, and velocity make up for it. And with that high durability, he can put up some monster innings for the Jack A$$'es. Grade: A
6. Baltimore mets - Glenn Barnes: And here we have the 3rd stud SP my scouts missed. He's not quite at the caliber of Paramore or Alvarez, but he should see his share of All-Star games during his career. Barnes' excellent splits and great velocity should make up for his low control and lack of good 2nd through 5th pitches. Baltimore management is hoping he doesn't run into health issues during his career, which could be a worry. Grade: A-
7. Charleston Vampires - Orber Espinosa: The wealth of offensive talent in this draft continued as the Vampires picked up a great CF with the 7th pick in Espinosa. Espinosa continues the trend of speedy position players, though his baserunning instincts are subpar. He struggles against LHP's, but his great contact, vR, and batting eye should make him a MVP candidate at some point in his career. He should be very solid in CF as well, and bats like this at a demanding position like CF are rare indeed. My scouts continued their stellar work in completely missing out on Espinosa. Grade: A
8. San Francisco Friars - Don Kelly: The stellar draft continued with yet another MVP-caliber bat going 8th to the Friars. Kelly can hit for power (40+ HR threat) and average. He should be a very solid defender in CF, and could even fill in at 2B in a pinch (though you wouldn't want to play him there for a full season). Getting an MVP-caliber bat at the 8th pick, even at a corner OF position, is still an accomplishment. I had him ranked 4th. Grade: A
9. Madison Cheeseheads - Pedro Gonzalez: Finally the first dud pick in the draft. When Gonzalez throws the ball, he gets people out. He's got pitching tools comparable to Paramore and Muratore. However, Gonzalez suffers from an extreme case of narcolepsy: by the time he's thrown 10 pitches, he's usually asleep on the mound. Although his disorder has entertained dozens of fans at Milwaukee Area Technical College (who often compete in odd contests for the right to wheel him off the field), he probably won't be a great help for a ML baseball team. Luckily for milton7, though, he probably won't sign, as he prefers prefers playing in front of only his parents rather than a packed stadium, and a compensation pick could yield a useful pick next season. Grade: F
10. Nashville Troubadors - Jared Russell: Since he's still unsigned, and since apparently my scouts can't even locate a single college newspaper article about him, I can't give any opinion on this pick. When he signs, I'll update this with analysis.
1. Columbus Small Ballers - Russ Martin: Martin was my top-ranked player. He is the definition of a player to build a franchise around: MVP-quality bat, blazing speed, and very solid defense at the most difficult position, SS. He will be an All-Star SS for the Small Ballers for many seasons to come, and was a great pick by chuckster. Grade: A
2. Mexico City Charros - Danys Perez: Another excellent selection. Perez will hit for more power than Martin, but might not get on base as much. He does boast blazing speed, but his defensive limitations mean he'll probably play 3B rather than SS in the bigs. Still, a bat like his at a position other than C/DH/1B/LF are not easy to come by. I had him ranked 5th, but his projections improved when my advanced scouting guys took a look at him. Grade: A
3. Cleveland Redlegs - Russ Paramore: My scouts saw this as an extraordinarily weak pitching draft, and part of the reason is because they missed Paramore. Wow, what a stud. Has the potential to be even better than Jeff Muratore (even before his injury). Nearly unbeatable splits, as well as great control, velocity, one great pitch and three other good ones...I am very unhappy he's in my division. Grade: A
4. Los Angeles Urban Achievers - Corky Ramsey: Ramsey has yet to sign, but when he does, the Urban Achievers will have a great bat to build around. Ramsey has MVP potential, thanks to his great power, excellent eye, speed on the basepaths, and ability to play pretty much every single day. The only downside is he will be limited to 1B or DH throughout his career. Still, an MVP-quality bat with the 4th pick is very good. I had him ranked 3rd. Grade: A
5. Florida Jack A$$'es - Alberto Alvarez: Ah yes, another stud SP that my scouts missed out on. Alvarez is no Paramore, but then again, nobody is. He still has potential to win a Cy Young (or more) during his career. The lack of a 3rd pitch might hurt him a bit, but his control, splits, and velocity make up for it. And with that high durability, he can put up some monster innings for the Jack A$$'es. Grade: A
6. Baltimore mets - Glenn Barnes: And here we have the 3rd stud SP my scouts missed. He's not quite at the caliber of Paramore or Alvarez, but he should see his share of All-Star games during his career. Barnes' excellent splits and great velocity should make up for his low control and lack of good 2nd through 5th pitches. Baltimore management is hoping he doesn't run into health issues during his career, which could be a worry. Grade: A-
7. Charleston Vampires - Orber Espinosa: The wealth of offensive talent in this draft continued as the Vampires picked up a great CF with the 7th pick in Espinosa. Espinosa continues the trend of speedy position players, though his baserunning instincts are subpar. He struggles against LHP's, but his great contact, vR, and batting eye should make him a MVP candidate at some point in his career. He should be very solid in CF as well, and bats like this at a demanding position like CF are rare indeed. My scouts continued their stellar work in completely missing out on Espinosa. Grade: A
8. San Francisco Friars - Don Kelly: The stellar draft continued with yet another MVP-caliber bat going 8th to the Friars. Kelly can hit for power (40+ HR threat) and average. He should be a very solid defender in CF, and could even fill in at 2B in a pinch (though you wouldn't want to play him there for a full season). Getting an MVP-caliber bat at the 8th pick, even at a corner OF position, is still an accomplishment. I had him ranked 4th. Grade: A
9. Madison Cheeseheads - Pedro Gonzalez: Finally the first dud pick in the draft. When Gonzalez throws the ball, he gets people out. He's got pitching tools comparable to Paramore and Muratore. However, Gonzalez suffers from an extreme case of narcolepsy: by the time he's thrown 10 pitches, he's usually asleep on the mound. Although his disorder has entertained dozens of fans at Milwaukee Area Technical College (who often compete in odd contests for the right to wheel him off the field), he probably won't be a great help for a ML baseball team. Luckily for milton7, though, he probably won't sign, as he prefers prefers playing in front of only his parents rather than a packed stadium, and a compensation pick could yield a useful pick next season. Grade: F
10. Nashville Troubadors - Jared Russell: Since he's still unsigned, and since apparently my scouts can't even locate a single college newspaper article about him, I can't give any opinion on this pick. When he signs, I'll update this with analysis.
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