Thursday, May 26, 2011

Season 19 Draft Analysis: Picks 21-32

21. Milwaukee Brewers - Chad Lannan: The quickest way to describe Lannan would be "platoon SS", which sounds like a poor value in the 1st round. Lannan, however, has the potential to be an extremely valuable platoon SS. Luckily, his poor split is vL, which is much less damaging to a player's value than a poor vR. Excellent contact, great vR, and really good batting eye will make him a force at the plate against RHP's (which should account for 400+ great AB's a year). His defense isn't spectacular but will more than get the job done at SS. Lannan will provide the Brewers with a great option at SS vs. RHP's for a long time. If only the real life Brewers could find one too. Grade: B+

22. Indianapolis Lancers - Ross Prince: I think Prince is a pretty solid value pick for bottom half of the 1st round. I see him as having pretty good splits and control, with two solid pitches and three mediocre-to-crappy ones. Not a franchise-changer, but if he reaches the projections I currently see (no given, since they could drop once he signs) he will be a solid #3 SP...more likely he will be a 4 or 5. Grade: B

23. Little Rock Liddies - Larry Coco: Coco will probably be a decent player but nothing special, which is fine for a pick this late. His D is a little weak for SS, so he'll probably play 3B . Mediocre splits and batting eye will keep him from being a star, but his contact should let him be at least somewhat useful. His blazing speed combined with excellent baserunning skills should allow him to reach scoring position a lot. Probably a mediocre 3B or a very good utility man. Grade: B-

24. Baltimore mets - Carter Farr: I find Farr to be an acceptable but slightly below average pick at this point in the draft. On the surface he looks like a fairly successful SP, with solid splits, decent velocity, and above average control. However, when you note that his lower split is vR and he only has one above-average pitch, he looks a lot like a long reliever or spot starter than a middle-of-the-rotation stalwart. Grade: C+

25. Texas Dragons - Wascar Gil: Seeing a split as low as Gil's vL immediately turns me off to a player. However, I think Gil deserves a second look. That vR isn't great, but will do fine with good supporting ratings. And those beautiful first 4 pitches, great velocity, and pinpoint control give Gil all the supporting ratings needed to overcome those underwhelming splits. I think that his vL rating will hurt him, but I still think Gil will be a solid SP4 or SP5, with maybe a lucky season or 2 where he leads a staff. Grade: B

26. Augusta moose - Malcolm Young: If Young's durability were just 10 points higher, he'd be an absolute steal at pick 26. As it is, though, he's still a solid pick who can help a winning team. When it comes to pitching skill, Young's above-average split set, great velocity and control, and above-average set of pitches will make him dangerous on the mound. But that low durability will keep him stuck as a reliever or a low pitch count SP. Still, given how good Young will be when he is able to pitch, it's a good value for this late in the 1st round. I had him ranked 13th. Grade: B+

27. Hartford Pit Bulls - Alberto Lopez: Lopez is an average or slightly below average 1st round pick, in my opinion. His slightly above average splits, mediocre batting eye, and above average power will not make up for his low contact rating. I see him with a low batting average and unspectacular OBP with about 15-20 HR...but given his defensive prowess in CF, that may be plenty to warrant a starting job. Grade: C

28. New York Juicers - Victor Franco: Franco is an interesting player whose value is difficult to clearly define. On the bright side, he can mash the hell out of the ball when he's playing LHP's, and he'll provide a spark on the basepaths. On the downside, he probably can't hit RHP's enough to justify starting against them with his unspectacular defense. So he'll probably give 200-300 AB of excellent offense a season, meaning he's not a franchise-changer but could still have value. Grade: C+

29. Tacoma Mountain Men - Timo Workman: Low-contact players like Workman are one of the most interesting player types statistically around HBD. They seem to be very inconsistent to me, with All-Star seasons followed by years batting .240. I think Workman has the splits (especially that excellent vR), decent batting eye, and great power to make him an All-Star multiple years in his career. He will also have down years, though, but overall, with a bat like that at 3B, he's going to end up being a positive asset for the Mountain Men for a lot of years. Grade: B+

30. Durham Bulls - Ron Price: Price, to me, is thoroughly ordinary. These are the kinds of players that are picked frequently in this part of the draft. He'll probably make a ML team due to his good vL and great speed, but he will never be anything more than an average starter or a pretty solid platoon man at 2B or LF. These are the guys you can find aplenty in the Rule V draft or free agency. Grade: D+

31. Cheyenne Warriors - Brett Guerrero: Here is the type of dynamic pick teams drafting in the bottom of the first round hope to get to keep their franchise on top. Guerrero has the arm to play C, and while his pitch calling will never be above average, his bat (especially versus LHP's) and great batting eye will allow him to be a solid starter at C for a long period of time. Excellent value pick for the Warriors. Grade: A-

32. Boston Red Sox - Travis Earley: And here we have another example of a difference-maker picked late in the 1st round. While Earley doesn't have the great velocity of many RP's, he does have absolute pinpoint control, a great slider and change-up, and the above-average splits to make him a fixture in the late-inning bullpen of the Red Sox for many seasons to come. Grade: A

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